Two-Thirds of Americans Disapprove of Trump's Iran Policy as Strikes Await the Midterms

President Donald Trump has ruled out any new American strike on Iran before the US midterms on November 3, while reports say the Israeli and US governments are preparing a major round of strikes after the vote. For ordinary Americans, that timing means a policy roughly two-thirds of them disapprove of is set to continue and expand in the weeks following the election, with concerns already circulating about the effect on energy prices.

The sequencing has been under negotiation for weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly pushed to renew bombing before Israeli or American voters went to the polls; he has denied that publicly. Trump has said publicly that no US attack will happen before November 3. According to several recent reports cited in the source column, both governments are genuinely preparing another major round of strikes once the American election concludes.

The source column, written by Connor O'Keeffe for the Mises Wire, argues that the case for war rests on a claim it rejects: that Iran is weeks or months from a nuclear war it lacks the weapons and delivery systems to fight. O'Keeffe writes that the stated rationale is the most effective framing a pro-war coalition has found for securing public acquiescence, and that the coalition includes Israeli politicians seeking to weaken a regional rival and domestic weapons companies restocking depleted US munitions stockpiles.

Public support for the policy has eroded. Around two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's Iran policy, O'Keeffe writes, with concerns growing about energy prices. The column frames the election timing as a case study in the limits of elections as a constraint on power: after November 3, Trump and his party face no electoral test for years in most cases.

The column notes precedents. George W. Bush delayed the Iraq surge until after the 2006 midterms. Barack Obama waited until after the 2014 midterms to enact second-term immigration reforms and had earlier delayed contested regulations past the 2012 election. George Bush Sr. announced the Gulf military buildup two days after the 1990 midterms, though he had ordered it weeks earlier. Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lyndon B. Johnson each campaigned on staying out of wars and changed course after winning.

O'Keeffe's argument is that states act in their own interest and do what they can get away with, and that public opinion constrains rather than directs them. He writes that the Soviet Union fell when the justification for state power stopped working, and that the liberal revolutions of the 18th and 19th centuries replaced monarchical justifications with the process of popular sovereignty. The column states that the Trump administration's hesitation to restart the war before the election is evidence that public opinion still carries force, and that the administration's effort to shape opinion shows the same.

The Israeli election was held this week, and the US midterms take place on November 3. Reporting cited in the source column indicates both governments are preparing strikes after that date. O'Keeffe writes for the Mises Wire and hosts the Guns and Butter podcast.