Israeli Election Leaves Coalition Path Unclear

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc secured 50 seats in Israel's 120-seat parliament, according to exit polls released by major Israeli TV stations. The opposition took 52 seats while Arab-led parties won 18. Preliminary results are expected in the coming hours, with final tallies due in coming days and subject to change. Netanyahu had not made a public statement two hours after the exit polls were released.

Coalition building involves complex arithmetic. The president will ask the party leader with the best prospect of forming a government to assemble a majority. If Netanyahu's Likud emerges as the largest party, he could claim that right. Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, said the exit polls show a "complete lack of confidence" in Netanyahu and vowed to act immediately to carry out what he called the people's mandate. "I will act immediately to carry out the people's mandate, replace Netanyahu's government and form a Zionist government committed to military conscription as soon as possible," Eisenkot said in a statement.

Eisenkot could partner with Arab-led parties to reach a majority. This path is politically difficult and could alienate other opposition factions. Netanyahu and his allies are likely to cast any alliance with Arab parties as illegitimate. Netanyahu warned earlier that Arab parties could make or break the election, saying they were receiving "truly massive support" and heading to the polls in "unprecedented numbers." If no candidate assembles a majority, new elections could be held early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 following similar deadlocks.

Voter turnout reached its highest level since 1999, with more than 77% of eligible voters casting ballots, according to the Central Elections Committee. Over 7 million people were eligible to vote. Tens of thousands reportedly arrived from overseas.

At Eisenkot's party headquarters, supporters jumped for joy and chanted his name as exit polls were broadcast. At Netanyahu's headquarters, the few supporters present draped themselves in flags bearing his face and kissed posters. Voter Angela Bengur, speaking in Jerusalem, said: "The present government is driving the country into the ground." Voter Nisso Shitrit in Tel Aviv's Jaffa neighborhood framed the election as a matter of military duty: "who serves and who evades service, who takes an active part in building this country and who doesn't."

This was Israel's first national vote since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas that sparked the war in Gaza. In Tel Aviv, families of some killed on Oct. 7 or former hostages held a moment of silence during the vote. "Remember all those whose voices are no more," said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was killed. Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, allegations he denies. He also ramped up threats ahead of the vote, warning Iran it would face "a devastating blow" if it attacked Israel. Final results are expected in the coming days.