Former Ukraine foreign minister sees new pressure in peace talks

Dmytro Kuleba, who led Ukraine's foreign ministry for more than four years, says the current round of peace negotiations feels different from previous attempts. He points to increased pressure from the United States and a distinct shift in how Europe is engaging with the conflict. For Kyiv, the stakes now involve immediate financial security and military equipment rather than just diplomatic posturing.

Kuleba notes that US President Donald Trump has initiated this latest cycle of talks. He explains that the US is drawing in Finland and Norway instead of the traditional European trio of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. The warm-up round took place in Oslo, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US envoy Steve Witkoff. Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Störe have also spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to Kuleba, the US is tightening its grip on Ukraine. He cites Zelenskyy's reports that US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is delaying the transfer of Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems that Ukraine has already purchased. Kuleba believes this tactic is designed to push Ukraine into a more compliant posture before a final agreement is reached. He contrasts this with the end of February 2025, which he describes as the hardest moment when intelligence sharing stopped and support programs wound down.

The former minister argues that Europe has not yet joined forces with the US to pressure Ukraine. He says European leaders suffer from an inferiority complex because they are not leading the process. Their main leverage remains financial. Kuleba warns that a decision to cut funding for 2027 or 2028 could force Kyiv to accept terms it might otherwise reject. He notes that while the European Commission is currently facing budget cuts, specific reductions for Ukraine are not yet on the table.

Kuleba characterizes Störe as a key player because Norway is one of Ukraine's largest donors and a participant in the F-16 fighter jet program. He views Störe as unlikely to abandon Ukraine for the sake of stopping the war. In contrast, he sees Stubb as having less direct leverage over Kyiv. Kuleba suggests that Stubb's charismatic leadership has placed Finland at the center of world politics despite its smaller role in the military coalition.

Kuleba questions whether Russia truly seeks a deal or simply uses negotiations to buy time and split Western support. He says Putin aims to change global circumstances to stop European funding. He references a November 2021 memorandum from the Russian Foreign Ministry to the US delegation that requested NATO roll back its borders to their 1997 position. That demand would have left Warsaw Pact countries defenseless, a scope of territory that goes beyond Ukraine.

Kuleba observes that a group in Ukraine is advocating for a quick peace by conceding territory. He compares this to the historical example of Finland under Mannerheim. He believes this approach assumes Putin will settle for the Donbas region, a hypothesis that may not hold. He notes that many people view Putin as a rational actor interested only in money, a view that also applied to Trump during his first presidency.

Kuleba describes the current situation as one where Ukraine is adapting to deteriorating external conditions. He states that while the pressure is intense, it is not worse than the uncertainty of early 2025. He concludes that the main question is how long Ukraine can continue adapting while the US and Europe decide their respective roles in the conflict.