Kremlin remains calm as Ukraine talks resume amid U.S. congressional shift

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressed confidence that the recent U.S. midterm election results will not disrupt ongoing peace efforts regarding Ukraine. Speaking on Sunday, he stated that groundwork for a settlement is already in place and that a new round of trilateral negotiations involving Russian, Ukrainian, and U.S. representatives is scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Peskov described the U.S. congressional shift as an internal matter for Washington. He voiced hope that President Donald Trump would continue to pursue his peace initiatives, specifically citing the successful humanitarian efforts of First Lady Melania Trump. Her recent work helped secure a limited ceasefire around the occupied city of Oleshky, allowing for the delivery of aid and the evacuation of some residents.

The diplomatic push follows a series of moves by the Trump administration that observers said favored Moscow. Last month, the U.S. struck a diesel fuel import deal with Russia, reversing years of pressure on the Kremlin. Trump also paused sweeping new sanctions on the Russian economy, a move criticized by lawmakers from both parties. Additionally, Ukraine reported a temporary throttling of Starshield, the military version of Starlink, which is vital for Ukrainian drone operations.

The diesel deal appeared to stall this week after U.S. officials warned of legal consequences for handling the shipments. Two tankers bound for the U.S. changed course, though the Kremlin maintained that deliveries would continue. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to seek replenishment of Patriot interceptor missiles. The Trump administration approved a $2.1 billion sale of these systems on Oct. 30 after Kyiv accused the Pentagon of delays. U.S. stockpiles were depleted during the Iran war, forcing a prioritization of domestic arsenals.

Trump recently conferred with Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev at a White House ceremony honoring the humanitarian truce. He hinted that a broader deal on European security was in development. Trump appeared to echo the Kremlin’s view that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was an obstacle to peace, while suggesting Putin was more open to a deal.

In Russia, some analysts predict the new Congress will pressure Trump to toughen his stance. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, stated that Trump would be less inclined to press Ukraine when the new Congress is seated. He noted that the president does not need an extra confrontation with Democrats. Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter, argued that Putin missed a window of opportunity to strike a deal before the election. Gallyamov wrote that Putin’s prospects have worsened as the political window begins to close.

Zelenskyy told German broadcaster ZDF on Wednesday that Democrats speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine. He believes the U.S. assistance chances may grow, including speedier delivery of Patriot interceptors. However, some policy experts caution against expecting a dramatic shift. Jorn Fleck, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, said Democrats will struggle to impose meaningful limits on Trump’s foreign policy conduct. Fleck noted that Trump may shift into deal-making overdrive to cement his legacy, now unshackled from facing voters at the ballot box.

Konstantin Kosachev, a deputy speaker of the Russian upper house, argued that Trump’s executive powers allow him to pursue his course regardless of congressional opposition. He warned that Kyiv and European allies who pin hopes on the Democratic victory may face a more resolute Trump who is no longer looking over his shoulder at upcoming elections. Kosachev said these capitals have sided with Trump’s domestic political adversaries, guaranteeing two years of a hard-line approach. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna agreed that the president’s role in foreign policy remains paramount, adding that unpredictability should be expected.