Vance links Republican midterm losses to Iran war and US support for Israel

US Vice President JD Vance has blamed the war on Iran for Republican losses in the midterm elections, arguing that the party lost support among voters who wanted greater attention to domestic economic concerns and a different relationship with Israel. His lengthy statement on X on Wednesday appeared to challenge President Donald Trump's Middle East strategy.

Democrats had secured 54 Senate seats and 237 House seats as results continued to come in, giving them control of both chambers and the capacity to obstruct the administration's agenda. Vance rejected the idea that weak Republican turnout was the central explanation for the defeat, saying many people who backed the Trump and Vance ticket in 2024 had instead voted Democratic.

Vance said his team's analysts had initially found reasons for optimism in turnout figures. But a data analyst warned him that strong participation did not necessarily mean Republican candidates would benefit, because some of the party's previous supporters were angry and considering switching sides. In Florida, Vance said, the electorate was nine percentage points more Republican than Democratic, only a couple of points below the 2024 comparison.

According to Vance, a pollster who accurately anticipated the outcome asked former Trump voters what would persuade them to return to the Republican camp. Their leading responses were ending the war, addressing living costs and inflation, putting America first and changing the US relationship with Israel. Vance acknowledged another pollster's criticism that the party's economic messaging had lacked precision, but maintained that the conflict was the decisive issue.

“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance wrote. He argued that anyone defending the conflict should acknowledge its electoral cost. He also pointed to Rachel Campos Duffy's call for a diplomatic resolution, saying her advice had proved sound despite criticism directed at her on Monday. Looking ahead, he urged dissatisfied voters to channel their frustration into electing Republicans who shared their views.

Trump sought to separate himself from the defeated Republican candidates as the results emerged, despite having campaigned extensively for them. In a post on X, he stressed that he had not been on the ballot and claimed the party would have won overwhelmingly if he had been. In a Wall Street Journal interview, however, he acknowledged that the Iran war had contributed to the result, saying: “Iran was a piece of it.”

The Democratic victories leave Trump facing congressional opposition during his remaining two years in office. Speaking to Politico during Tuesday's election coverage, he said he did not want to spend that period vetoing everything. Trump, who is 80, is barred from seeking a third presidential term.