54 seats: The new target for Netanyahu's challengers
US advisers are preparing for a potential shift in Jerusalem's leadership as polls show the opposition bloc gaining a decisive edge ahead of the October 27 vote.
By Kavya Kapoor ·
American officials are signaling a willingness to pivot their diplomatic approach if Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loses the upcoming election.
US President Donald Trump's inner circle appears optimistic about the prospect of collaborating with the opposition bloc, according to sources briefed on the matter. While the administration has formally supported the incumbent, internal conversations suggest a strategic flexibility if the political landscape changes on October 27.
One senior adviser described the current situation by noting that Netanyahu is the devil the president knows best. This sentiment reflects a broader debate within the White House staff. Many of the president's closest aides actually opposed his decision to endorse Netanyahu for the race. They argued that the US should remain neutral and stay out of the internal Israeli electoral process entirely.
Vice President JD Vance navigated this tension carefully this week. When pressed on his personal stance, he clarified that he was neither attacking nor endorsing the prime minister. He emphasized that the president's endorsement was the ultimate factor in the administration's support.
Frictions have also emerged regarding specific foreign policy issues. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack voiced concerns about the Netanyahu government's tactics in Syria. Following Israeli strikes in the Idlib province, Barrack labeled the move an unnecessary escalation that did not help regional stability. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team maintain a warmer relationship with the prime minister but believe Israel should do more to bolster Lebanon's government. They have also expressed frustration over what they see as a failure to curb settler attacks in the West Bank.
The political backdrop in Israel is shifting against the incumbent. The latest Maariv poll indicates that the opposition bloc has widened its lead to 54 seats, while Netanyahu's coalition has fallen to 48. This margin suggests a potential change in government if the current trends hold through election day.
If the vote does not yield a clear majority, 60% of respondents prefer a unity government over another election, which is favored by 23%. Among those supporting a unified cabinet, 33% want a leader from the opposition bloc, compared to 19% who prefer Netanyahu. A further 8% support unity regardless of leadership, leaving 17% undecided.
In a direct head-to-head contest for the prime ministerial role, Gadi Eisenkot leads Netanyahu with 49% support against 41% for the incumbent. The administration is now watching these numbers closely as it prepares for the outcome of the October 27 vote.
Source: The Jerusalem Post
