Former Israeli Intel Chief Predicts Third Wave of U.S.-Iran Conflict After November Vote

The next round of fighting between the U.S., Israel, and Iran may begin after November 3.

Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence officer who now works at the Institute for National Security Studies, told CBC News that a renewed war seems almost inevitable. He expects the conflict to restart once the ballots for the U.S. midterm elections are counted. Citrinowicz believes this third phase will be more destructive than the previous two.

The U.S. and Israel have already fought two wars against Iran in the past 18 months. The first started in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites and ended after 12 days. Fighting resumed in February following a large U.S. military buildup. That campaign began with Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz says signals from Iranian officials point to a third round targeting Gulf energy facilities. He also expects attacks on civilian infrastructure and communications lines. Specifically, he cites internet cables running under the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that Iran might use its land army to launch limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, to hurt the U.S. economy.

The conflict has not stopped since the summer truce broke down. The U.S. blockaded Iranian ports, and Iran targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions pushed up global energy costs. On Thursday, President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the vote. He claimed Iran was making up fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that the attacks aim to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands.

Iran wants sanctions relief, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have tried to restart talks for weeks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iran to double down on its revolutionary ideology. She said retaliation would likely come from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, targeting economic sites like airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment said Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate.

Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran. Lebanese media say over 4,000 people have died in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have also been killed. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it. Netanyahu faces voters in the coming days and has spoken of finishing the job. Citrinowicz warned that political calculation in Israel could combine with an Iranian development to produce an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour added that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by maximalist U.S. aims.