Exit polls show 60 seats needed for Israeli PM to form government
Neither Netanyahu's camp nor the opposition bloc has a clear path to the 60-seat majority required in the 120-member Knesset, according to early television data.
By Amir Navarro ·
Exit polls from Israeli television networks indicate that no single faction won a majority in Tuesday's parliamentary vote. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party secured the largest share of seats among all contenders, yet neither his coalition nor the opposition bloc has the 60 seats required to govern the 120-member Knesset. The result points toward a period of complex coalition negotiations.
The voting patterns reveal a sharp division. Polls suggest a majority of voters chose parties against Netanyahu, but his party still leads in individual seat counts. Both sides now face the challenge of assembling enough partners to reach a quorum. No candidate has a clear path to power without crossing traditional ideological lines.
The political context for this election is defined by ongoing conflict. This is the first vote since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, which officials described as the worst security challenge since the state's founding in 1948. Voters participated while Israel maintained active military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Two direct rounds of conflict with Iran also occurred during this period.
Arab parties achieved their highest seat count in history, a shift driven by high turnout among the minority community. Arab citizens make up about 20% of the population. Many voters cited the difficulty of life under the current hard-right government as a reason for their participation. This electoral success complicates the post-election math for both major factions.
Netanyahu and his opponents have both vowed to avoid forming a government dependent on Arab parties. They argue that giving these groups influence could endanger the country's handling of its various conflicts. If the opposition breaks this pre-election promise, they could take power and remove Netanyahu. Keeping Arab parties out was a central pillar of Netanyahu's campaign.
President Donald Trump voiced support for Netanyahu last week. In a post on Truth Social, the US president warned that America might have to take on more of the workload in the war if Israel changes leadership. He stated, "If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so."
The main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews in Gaza and served on the war cabinet during the first year of the conflict. His party's candidate list is roughly 50% female, contrasting with the male-dominated lineup of Netanyahu's coalition. Eisenkot frames his candidacy around reunifying the country after years of division.
If neither bloc secures a majority, several outcomes are possible. Parties may switch sides, a common occurrence in Israeli politics, leading to weeks of negotiation. The opposition could also attempt to form a minority government by securing more seats than Netanyahu's side, even without a full 50% majority. If that fails, Israel will hold new elections, a scenario that has happened five times between 2019 and 2022.
