Voters Decide US Congress as Democrats Split on Israel Aid

American voters are heading to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, to decide the composition of Congress. This election serves as the first major test for President Donald Trump since he returned to office. The outcome will determine which party controls the legislative agenda and how Washington engages with international partners, particularly Israel.

The stakes involve all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House and a 53-47 advantage in the Senate. Two independent senators align with the Democrats for voting purposes. Democrats require a net gain of four Senate seats to seize control. Winning both chambers would allow them to block Trump’s legislative proposals, launch investigations into his administration, and obstruct his senior personnel appointments.

Polling data indicates a challenging environment for the current president. A Reuters and Ipsos survey released last week placed Trump’s approval rating at 32 percent. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten issued a forecast projecting a 92 percent likelihood of a Democratic House win and a 71 percent chance of a Democratic Senate takeover. He noted that these figures are probabilities, not certainties. The Cook Political Report identified Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas as toss-up races that will likely determine Senate control.

Michigan has become a focal point for internal Democratic conflict over Israel policy. Rep. Haley Stevens lost her primary bid for the Senate to physician Abdul El-Sayed in August. On Sunday, Stevens announced her support for Republican candidate Mike Rogers. The race is to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters in a state Trump won by a small margin in 2024.

Stevens criticized an advertisement from an independent group backing El-Sayed that linked high domestic living costs to American aid for Israel. She labeled the ad antisemitic and asked El-Sayed to distance himself from it. El-Sayed stated that his campaign did not produce the ad and that he disagreed with its messaging. Their scheduled joint appearance was canceled, and Stevens’s endorsement of the Republican drew criticism from Democrats worried about losing the seat.

El-Sayed has described Israel’s actions in Gaza as a genocide and backs limits on military aid. In a CBS interview aired on Monday, he affirmed the right of Palestine to exist. He said he supported equal rights for both Palestinians and Jewish Israelis and would accept a one-state or two-state solution if both groups agreed on equal terms. Recent polling averages show El-Sayed leading, though most of those interviews took place before Stevens endorsed Rogers.

Other progressive candidates are poised to take office from party strongholds. Brad Lander won the primary in New York’s 10th District, defeating Rep. Dan Goldman. Lander calls himself a liberal Zionist and supports a Jewish democratic state alongside a Palestinian state while criticizing Israeli policies. In Michigan, state Rep. Donavan McKinney defeated Rep. Shri Thanedar. McKinney advocates ending military aid to Israel and accuses it of genocide.

In New Jersey’s 12th District, surgeon Adam Hamawy is expected to win after campaigning on his medical work in Gaza. He supports a comprehensive arms embargo and says he opposes antisemitism. In California’s 34th District, Angela Gonzales-Torres is challenging Rep. Jimmy Gomez. Her platform includes ending weapons transfers and supporting the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement. Axios reported that some of these candidates are discussing forming a congressional group informally known as The Bloc to increase their influence over Democratic leadership.