Qatar mediators move between Tehran and Doha as Gulf states brace for renewed conflict

The geopolitical stability of the Persian Gulf hangs in the balance as diplomatic teams work to avert a new wave of hostilities. Qatar has led an intensive mediation campaign over the last three days, shuttling envoys between Tehran and Doha. These talks aim to pause the conflict between Iran and the U.S. coalition just as Washington prepares for potential strikes following its midterm elections.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state media on Saturday that no final agreement has been reached yet. However, he described ongoing discussions regarding a two-day plan. Under this proposal, Iranian forces would cease attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to allow direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran to resume.

President Donald Trump addressed the situation from Mar-a-Lago, where he hosted a Halloween gathering. He stated that the U.S. is not in a rush to resume operations. Trump claimed that previous strikes destroyed most of Iran's military equipment, manufacturing capabilities, and nuclear facilities, though he acknowledged one or two sites remained. He estimated that taking out those remaining targets would take ten minutes.

Despite Trump's confidence, uncertainty pervades the region. Aya Batrawy, reporting from Bahrain, noted that senior European diplomats and Arab military generals admit they do not know what the next move will be. The decision impacts tens of millions of people in the Gulf, where the war has already raised energy costs. Brent crude prices are currently 60% higher than pre-war levels.

Iran's leadership has signaled a readiness to respond aggressively. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei instructed armed forces commanders that any threat must be met with an immediate response without geographical limitations. State media interpreted this to mean new U.S. or Israeli attacks would cause greater damage than previous engagements. Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani warned that Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to strike undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz if the war renews.

The physical toll of the conflict is visible in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Damage from the initial attacks on February 28 is evident along the highway, including charred warehouses and hit radar equipment at the logistics hub. The base, which housed 8,000 military personnel before the war, now holds fewer than 100. Al Zayani also noted that Iran struck civilian infrastructure and Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates during the peak of the fighting.

Gulf states view Iran as a primary security threat but prefer stability over further warfare. Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati diplomat, argued at the Manama Dialogue that political tools should be the main focus. He warned that military solutions would complicate an already difficult situation without providing a quick exit. Saudi Arabia faces additional pressure as it defends its airports and oil facilities from attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.