Vance, Rubio, Ossoff, and Buttigieg lead early field for 2028 White House race

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Senator Jon Ossoff, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are currently the most prominent figures in the early conversation regarding the 2028 presidential election. While these four individuals have captured significant attention from voters in their respective parties, none have formally launched campaigns, and the official nominating contests are still more than a year away. This timeline allows for additional contenders to emerge and for public opinion to shift considerably before the general election.

Among Republican registered voters, Secretary of State Rubio leads slightly, with 45 percent rating him as an excellent potential candidate. Vice President Vance follows closely, earning that same high rating from 43 percent of Republican voters. On the Democratic side, Senator Ossoff and former Secretary Buttigieg are tied, each receiving an excellent candidate rating from 29 percent of registered Democratic voters. The survey was conducted on Monday and included 1,705 US adults nationwide, with a margin of error of five percentage points for both Republican and Democratic samples.

President Donald Trump continues to cast a long shadow over the political landscape, particularly as his approval rating hovers near the lowest levels of his career. Republicans remain divided on whether they prefer a candidate who breaks away from Trump’s legacy or one who continues his path. Democrats, emboldened by their victory in the November 3 congressional elections, are debating the intensity with which they should challenge the president, including whether to pursue impeachment.

Trump has reportedly consulted allies on their preferences between Vance and Rubio. In an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes on Sunday, he stated that he would not necessarily endorse a candidate in the Republican primary. This ambivalence reflects a growing, albeit modest, dissatisfaction among some Republicans regarding the president’s recent decisions, particularly the war with Iran which has driven up fuel prices.

Rubio has been notably absent from the initial peace talks with Iran, despite holding the position of top diplomat, while Vance has taken steps to distance himself from the conflict. Vance recently suggested that the Republican losses in the midterm elections were partly due to the war. Barbara Rezner, a Florida attorney and repeat Trump voter, expressed a preference for Rubio, describing him as a steady candidate who has avoided extreme positions. She noted that Rubio has managed to stay off most people’s radar by not making controversial moves.

Other Republican figures are also part of the national discussion, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis receiving a 32 percent excellent rating. Donald Trump Jr. and Senator Ted Cruz have their own supporters but also face significant detractors. Among Democrats, Ossoff has gained visibility by using direct language to criticize Trump and recently won his re-election race in Georgia by 18 percentage points. Buttigieg, who ran for president in 2020, benefits from higher name recognition, with only one in five Democrats saying they have never heard of him, compared to one in three who have not heard of Ossoff.

The poll also highlights a preference for moderate candidates. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom each received 23 percent excellent ratings, surpassing the 15 percent rating for progressive representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Ocasio-Cortez has suggested impeachment should be an option, while Buttigieg has expressed less interest in the measure. Voters like Ed Blair, a retired farmer in Illinois, favor moderate approaches that allow for gradual policy changes rather than abrupt shifts.

Elaine Kamarck, a Democratic strategist, cautioned that it is too early to predict the final outcome. She noted that many potential candidates are still undecided about running and that the political landscape remains fluid. While name recognition can provide an early financial advantage, history shows that lesser-known candidates can rise to prominence during a campaign, much like former President Bill Clinton did in 1992.