Lebanese Shi'ite Poll Shows Major Shift in Support for State Control of Arms

A recent survey suggests a significant change in how many Lebanese Shi'ites view the role of their armed militia. For the first time, a clear majority in the community that forms the group's traditional base supports transferring weapons to the state. This shift could alter the balance of power in Beirut and impact regional stability. The findings indicate that ordinary citizens are increasingly looking to the national army rather than the militia for protection and political direction.

The data comes from a poll conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon among 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. Results reported by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org show that 66.4 percent of respondents favored handing over Hezbollah's arsenal to the state. Only 29.6 percent wanted the group to retain its weapons. This stands in contrast to the group's long-held argument that its arms are vital for defending Lebanon against Israel.

Kataeb.org, which is linked to the Christian Kataeb Party, highlighted additional trends in the data. A large majority, 71.1 percent, said that decisions on war and peace should belong exclusively to the Lebanese state. Only 5.9 percent believed Hezbollah's leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future. Confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces was notably high, with 78.5 percent of respondents expressing trust in the army. Furthermore, 51.1 percent identified the army as the best institution to guarantee long-term security, compared to just 16.5 percent who chose Hezbollah.

Despite this shift, the picture remains mixed. About 67.4 percent of respondents felt Hezbollah had failed or only partially achieved its goals in the conflict with Israel. More than 42 percent expressed disappointment or anger regarding the group's leadership. However, 59.5 percent still expressed some level of trust in the organization. Roi Kais of KAN noted that the social and status networks Hezbollah has built continue to sustain its strength unless another entity fills the void.

This recent data contrasts sharply with earlier findings. A May 2026 survey cited by researchers at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies found that 87.5 percent of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. That earlier poll also showed more than 90 percent opposed ties with Israel. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni argued that the group's influence relies on its economic networks and the historical marginalization of Shi'ites. They suggested that weakening the militia would require a stronger army and financial support from Western and Gulf states.

Local signs of wariness also emerged from the south. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed a branch of a Hezbollah-linked bank in their building, fearing it might become a target in an Israeli strike. Meanwhile, the group has announced financial aid for families whose homes were destroyed in the recent conflict. The outcome of these political shifts may depend on whether the Lebanese state can provide security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity to its citizens.

Next steps will likely involve political maneuvering as the state attempts to assert its authority. The recent war, which began in March 2026 and caused heavy destruction in southern villages, has intensified these questions. Whether this discontent translates into lasting political change remains to be seen.