China rules out hosting Cop33 climate summit in 2028
Beijing has decided against bidding for the 2028 UN climate talks, disappointing those who hoped the world's biggest emitter would step into the leadership void left by the United States.
By Marina Weber ·
China has decided against hosting the Cop33 UN climate summit in 2028 after months of deliberations, the Guardian understands, opening the way for other Asian countries to bid for the conference.
The move will frustrate many governments and climate experts who had hoped the world's biggest emitter would assume a more prominent leadership role, at a time when the United States under Donald Trump has abandoned international cooperation on climate change.
Among those disappointed was former US vice-president Al Gore. "I would be very much in favour of that idea [of China hosting the summit]," he told the Guardian. "It's too bad."
China is undergoing a sweeping economic shift away from heavy coal dependence toward what has been described as an "electro state". Renewable generation capacity has overtaken coal, greenhouse gas emissions appear to have edged down slightly this year, and electric vehicles accounted for nearly two-thirds of sales last month. Clean energy industries also drove more than 90% of the country's investment growth last year. Former US secretary of state John Kerry told the Guardian that China was leaving the rest of the world behind in developing and deploying low-carbon technologies.
Under the rotation rules of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, an Asian country is due to host the 2028 summit. Gareth Redmond-King, international lead at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit thinktank, said China's industrial might would have made it a formidable host. "It would undoubtedly be significant for the world's biggest emitter and second-biggest economy to host a climate Cop," he said. "They're leading the world on investment, manufacture and deployment of clean energy tech, and their emissions have started to tick down. As a leadership story, China hosting Cop33 would be a big deal."
The reasons for Beijing's decision remain unclear, but several experts who spoke to the Guardian pointed to the US electoral cycle as a likely factor. Cop33 is scheduled for 6 to 17 November 2028, and the next US presidential election falls on 7 November that year. After a strong showing in the recent midterm elections, in which voter concern about the climate crisis was thought to play a role, Democrats hope to elect a climate-friendly president in 2028. Even so, Trump, who rejects climate science, pulled the US out of the Paris agreement and is withdrawing from its parent 1992 treaty, would remain in office until the following January.
China has sought to position itself as a leader of developing countries but has been wary of filling the void left by Washington, despite the close climate partnership it maintained with the US under Democratic presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama, when the two countries set joint targets on methane reduction and clean technology. Cop33 is expected to be a significant meeting because it will feature the "global stocktake", the Paris agreement mechanism that assesses progress toward limiting warming to 1.5C. That threshold is now certain to be breached, and experts say the focus should shift to minimising the overshoot to limit the worst effects of extreme weather.
India weighed a bid for Cop33 for several months earlier this year before also deciding against it, with its coal use rising even as it surpasses its own renewable energy targets. Other countries understood to be considering bids include Uzbekistan, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand. No decision on a host is expected at this year's Cop31 meeting, which is under way in Turkey with the Turkish and Australian governments jointly presiding.
