Bob Carr says Australia will never receive US submarines under Aukus
The former foreign affairs minister argues the submarine transfers will not happen, while the Albanese government maintains the agreement is proceeding as planned.
By Amir Navarro ·
Former Australian foreign affairs minister Bob Carr has challenged the future of the $368bn Aukus agreement, saying officials in both Canberra and Washington recognise that the United States will never transfer nuclear submarines to Australia. The Albanese government continues to defend the arrangement, saying it remains on course and has the full support of US president Donald Trump.
Speaking to Guardian Australia’s weekly Australian Politics podcast, Carr predicted that US-operated submarines would instead be based in Australia. He argued that a future American president would consider China’s military strength too great to permit the transfer of three or more Virginia-class boats. Carr, a prominent opponent of Aukus who served as foreign affairs minister under Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd, described the two countries as “living a lie”.
Carr also questioned whether the agreement retained support within the defence establishments. He said the concentration of spending on submarines was putting pressure on funding for other military equipment. He warned that technological developments could overtake the submarine capability, pointing to lessons emerging from the war in Ukraine.
Australia has already contributed more than $3bn to US submarine manufacturing, against a commitment of roughly $4.6bn over the lifetime of the agreement. Further billions are going towards infrastructure, workforce development and construction. Labor backed the nuclear submarine plan while in opposition, following negotiations involving former prime minister Scott Morrison, then US president Joe Biden and then British prime minister Boris Johnson. The agreement was signed in 2021.
Production delays and rising costs affecting submarines for the US navy have fuelled doubts about whether Australia will receive the vessels. Any transfer requires approval from the US president and depends on the American military’s own requirements. Under the timetable, Australia is due to receive its first Virginia-class submarine in 2032, followed by another at four-year intervals. The purpose-built SSN Aukus model is scheduled to enter service in 2042.
Opposition to the project was also expressed in a crowdfunded public inquiry earlier in November, which called for the agreement to be ended immediately. Led by former Labor MP and Midnight Oil frontman Peter Garrett and former defence chief Adm Chris Barrie, the inquiry was dominated by critics. They argued that Aukus could draw Australia into a military confrontation with China.
The government dismissed the inquiry’s report, which drew on evidence from Carr, former Labor minister Gareth Evans and former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. Former defence ministers Linda Reynolds and Christopher Pyne were among those who presented arguments supporting the agreement.
Defence minister Richard Marles reiterated the government’s position this week, saying Aukus was “absolutely happening”. He described it as Australia’s largest industrial undertaking and its most significant increase in military capability since the navy was established more than a century ago. Marles said the project would strengthen national security while creating thousands of highly skilled technology jobs with lifelong career prospects.
