Lula Wins Fourth Term in Brazil After Dramatic Comeback Against Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil, completing a striking turnaround against far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff that stayed close until the end. Results were declared shortly after midnight UK time on 2026-10-26.

Lula, the Workers' party incumbent, took 51.79% of the vote to his rival's 48.21%, a margin of about 4.3 million votes among Brazil's 159 million voters. He described the outcome as "a defeat for denialism". Flávio Bolsonaro leads the radical populist movement built by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

The result reverses the picture from the first round earlier this month, when Flávio Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes to Lula's 53.8 million, or 47.03% to 45.16%. Since democracy returned to Brazil in 1985, no first-round runner-up had ever gone on to win the second ballot. Polls tightened sharply in the weeks between votes, leaving Bolsonaro ahead by only fractions of a percentage point.

Several factors appear to have helped Lula. The first round saw a record abstention rate of 21%, which was more common among Lula-leaning groups such as lower-income voters, and progressives focused on mobilisation. Millions joined a WhatsApp channel called "Lula's army", which sent daily instructions on making supportive content go viral. Lula, who only recently got his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok, and his digital reach overtook Bolsonaro's for the first time. The Bolsonaro campaign, meanwhile, was hit by scandals, including a claim by the magazine Piauí that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists.

Bolsonaro had drawn strength from the growth of evangelical Christianity, voter anger over urban crime and violence, and an effective social media presence. A dozen watchdogs and research groups published reports alleging that Meta may have favoured his campaign. Brazil's electoral court ordered Meta not to give candidates "unequal treatment", while the company called the allegations "false and unfounded".

The United States also loomed over the race. President Donald Trump did not openly endorse Bolsonaro, but he had called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro a "witch-hunt" and imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula has cast himself as a defender against Trump's "colonial" designs and has pursued a multilateral foreign policy, balancing relations with the US, China and Russia. He has also turned down invitations to join a coalition of Latin American countries conducting military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon.

The result carries weight for the environment. Under Lula, deforestation in the Amazon has fallen by more than 70%, and his government has cracked down on illegal mining and supported Indigenous people. Guardian Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips noted that the environment only came up in the final presidential debate, as voters focused on the economy, public security and culture war issues. Lula will have to work with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of rightwing politicians hostile to Indigenous rights and environmental causes.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede, citing the decision to extend voting by two hours, although both sides had asked for the extension for different reasons. He said it was "impossible to concede the election result". Phillips said he does not expect the challenge to succeed, since world leaders are already recognising Lula's win, and suggested Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. Violence from supporters remains possible, he said, but he believes Bolsonaro's political career is over. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.