Polls show both Israeli blocs short of majority as Palestinian vote looms

Polls released on October 23, 2026, indicate that neither Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition nor the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc will secure the 61 seats required to govern the 120-seat Knesset. The electoral gap is projected to fall within the 12 to 15 seats held by Palestinian citizens of Israel, a demographic that constitutes approximately 20 percent of the national population. This margin forces a calculation that both major camps have historically tried to avoid: the need for an alliance with Arab politicians to reach a governing threshold.

The Palestinian bloc is split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al. Ahmad Tibi, who has served in the Knesset for more than two decades and currently heads Ta'al, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a primary tool for toppling the current government. He noted that his party is determined to use its seats to achieve this objective.

Netanyahu and his allies have campaigned against an Arab alliance, using slogans such as "Bibi or Tibi" and posters declaring the choice is between the right and Palestine. Most of the Jewish Israeli opposition has similarly ruled out a coalition with Arab politicians. Despite these public stances, history suggests such promises are often broken once election results are final. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett, who now leads the opposition bloc. Netanyahu himself previously opened coalition talks with Abbas.

Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to reverse its stance after the vote. He described the situation as basic mathematics, urging friends of all backgrounds to participate. He expects that once the numbers are known, the opposition will accept an alliance with the Palestinian bloc to form a government.

For Palestinian politicians, the alliance presents its own difficulties. None of the opposition parties call for a two-state solution, and most strongly oppose a Palestinian state while backing the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Tibi described the choice as one between "bad and worse," contrasting Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir on one side against the opposition on the other.

Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, identified fear as the central motive for voter turnout. He cited the destruction in Gaza, militant violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel as reasons to prevent another four years of far-right ministers. Abu Shehadeh said voters understand the danger if the current coalition returns to power. The election also falls two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre in which border police killed 49 residents.

Distrust of the system has historically depressed turnout among Palestinian citizens. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article about the 7 October Hamas-led attacks, a ruling widely criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. In contrast, a motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Some Palestinians, such as Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle, refusing to legitimize a system that treats their rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as largely about mitigation, observing that Palestinians can see the difference between a right-wing and a far-right government. Iraqi said there is no clarity about what comes after the election, a feeling of powerlessness he believes is shared by many voters.